Alex Botwinick

Alex Botwinick

Senior Consumer Products Sales Engineer

I’ve spent my whole career in the CPG and FMCG world, with the last nine years laser-focused on Trade Promotion Management (TPM). My journey has taken me from starting as a data nerd at Nielsen, to leading trade marketing at Arla, and then six years at UpClear where I worked across sales, implementation and consulting for BluePlanner.

Now at Aforza, I’m excited to launch this 5-part series where I’ll share the experiences, lessons, and best practices I’ve learned along the way, alongside some practical examples of how Ava, Aforza’s Vertical AI, helps companies solve these challenges in the real world.

Following my first blog on the 7 Deadly Sins of TPM, I now turn to how Ava cuts through the noise to bring true clarity: transforming sales planning from a fragmented, biased process into a unified, trusted foundation for global CPGs.

This article is the second in my 5-part series on Trade Promotion Management, where I’m sharing real-world experiences, lessons learned and best practices, along with how Ava, Aforza’s Vertical AI, helps companies overcome the pitfalls I’ve seen first-hand.

If part one was about the 7 Deadly Sins of TPM, this article is about something even more fundamental: the planning process itself. Because here’s the truth I’ve learned over years in this space, when humans plan, bias inevitably creeps in.

Gut feel, intuition, political pressure, or wishful thinking all play their part. We tell ourselves it’s rational, but often it’s anything but. The result? Forecasts that are subjective, inconsistent and fragile.

This is why I describe Ava as the unbiased voice of reason. Ava doesn’t have a sales target to protect, a boss to impress, or a gut instinct to defend. She is objective, not subjective. Pure facts, not hunches. And that changes everything.

 

How Confident Are You Really in Your Sales Planning Process?

Ask most commercial leaders how confident they are in their sales forecast, and you’ll see the hesitation. Deep down, they know the truth: when forecasts are scattered across spreadsheets and reshaped by competing priorities, they stop being plans and start looking more like guesses dressed up as strategy.

I’ve been in those meetings where Sales insists on one number, Finance produces another, and Demand Planning arrives with a third. What happens next? A messy consensus process that blends the biases of all three, and leaves no one truly confident in the outcome.

 

The Chaos of Fragmented Planning

Here’s what that chaos looks like in practice:

9

Sales bases their forecast on the pipeline, retailer conversations & market knowledge

9

Finance reshapes it to match corporate growth targets

9

Demand Planning adjusts again, anchoring to supply constraints

9

Marketing and Supply Chain add tweaks for campaigns or logistics

The result? A patchwork forecast that no single team feels real ownership of, but which Sales will inevitably be asked to defend. I’ve lived that tension, and it’s demoralising. It’s accountability without true ownership.

 

Why Bias Is the Enemy of Trust

The underlying problem is human bias. Sales might inflate volumes to get approval. Finance might sandbag to stay safe. Marketing might overestimate campaign impact. None of these are malicious; they’re just human instincts at work.

But the outcome is unreliable forecasts and constant mistrust between teams. Everyone spends more time defending their position than actually improving performance.

 

Enter Ava: The Unbiased Voice of Reason

This is where Ava, Aforza’s Vertical AI Agent, makes the difference.

Instead of adding to the noise, Ava centralises all the data, eliminates silos, and produces a single, objective view of the business.

But more importantly, Ava is:

9

Objective, not subjective

9

Facts-based, not gut-based

9

Transparent, not political

    Unlike humans, Ava has no agenda and no bias. It doesn’t just present a number, it explains the reasoning behind it. By surfacing the why alongside the what, Ava gives decision-makers the confidence to trust the process, not argue about it.

     

    From Chaos to Clarity

    With Ava in place, the planning process is transformed:

    9

    No more “who’s right?” debates: there’s a single, unbiased agent everyone can trust

    9

    No more finger-pointing: Ava’s reasoning is visible and fact-based, so ownership is shared

    9

    No more uncertainty: Ava grounds recommendations in pure data, interpreted in the context of consumer goods

      The result is planning that’s clear, aligned, and free from the usual bias and politics. Teams stop defending their own subjective view and start building confidence around a shared, objective one.

       

      Why This Matters for Trade Promotion Management

      Trade promotions are one of the largest investments in any CPG business. If the planning process behind them is fragmented and biased, ROI suffers. Forecasts swing with opinion, not evidence and budgets leak away.

      But when planning is objective, transparent, and trusted, everything downstream improves. Promotions align more closely to demand. Finance gains visibility and control. And sales can finally defend a forecast that reflects market reality rather than political compromise.

      I’ve seen both sides of this equation: the frustration of subjective, biased planning, and the power of fact-based, objective planning. With Ava, for the first time, companies can remove the bias that has always held forecasts back.

      Ava for Trade Promotion Management

      Final Thoughts

      The real enemy of effective planning isn’t lack of effort. It’s bias. Humans bring instinct, politics and compromise to every forecast. Sales might overstate volumes to gain approval, Finance might sandbag to protect targets, and Marketing might overestimate campaign impact. None of these are malicious, they’re human nature, but the outcome is the same: forecasts that are skewed, inconsistent and mistrusted.

      Ava Commercial Coach

      Ava brings the opposite. It strips away bias and delivers what teams have always needed: objectivity, transparency and pure facts. Rather than adding more noise, Ava provides a single source of truth that explains not just the numbers but the reasoning behind them.

      That’s why I call Ava the unbiased voice of reason. It takes planning from chaos to clarity, from subjective to objective and from gut feel to fact-based. With Ava, every stakeholder can rally around the same view of reality, confident that it’s grounded in evidence rather than opinion.

      And that’s the real transformation. With Ava, you’re not just creating forecasts: you’re building trust, alignment, and confidence in every decision that shapes the future of your business.

      Webinar: Driving Profitable Promotions at Speed with Ava

      This 35-minute webinar will walk through a complete Trade Promotion Management flow, from the perspective of a Key Account Manager, showing how Aforza with Ava sets a new standard compared to legacy approaches. You’ll see how faster planning, smarter decisions and clearer financial control all come together in one intuitive flow.